Pool Luck
Pool luck is the ratio of found blocks to expected ones. 100 percent is the long-run norm, and on any single day the number swings very wide.
What pool luck is
Finding a block is a lottery with no memory. Hashrate sets the expectation: so many blocks over so much time. Reality dances around that expectation: today the pool found three blocks instead of two, tomorrow none. Luck above 100 percent means more blocks than expected, below means fewer.
Skill has nothing to do with it. On an honest pool, luck converges to a hundred over a long stretch, and no settings will lift it. What looks suspicious is not a bad week but luck sitting below a hundred for months: that is a reason to study the pool more closely.
Whether you feel the luck depends on the payout scheme. PPS pays by expectation, the pool absorbs the variance, and its fee is partly the price of that insurance. PPLNS passes the swings to you: the pool's bad streak shows up right in your payouts.
Pool size changes only how often events happen. A big pool finds blocks often and its luck chart is smooth, a small one finds them rarely and its chart jumps around. The expected value per terahash is the same for both.
The short version
| What it shows | found blocks against expected ones |
| The norm | 100 percent on average over a long stretch |
| Who feels the swings | PPLNS yes, PPS barely |
| What is suspicious | luck below a hundred for months |
| What does not affect it | ASIC settings and the pool's skill |
How to read the luck number
Check the period: one day of luck is noise, a quarter is already statistics.
Compare against the payout scheme: on PPS a pool's bad week does not touch you, on PPLNS it lands straight in your payouts.
Do not hop between pools chasing luck: after the move the expectation is the same, and on PPLNS switching also loses your warmed-up window.
Check the long-run stats before picking a pool: months steadily below a hundred with no explanation is a warning sign.
An example in numbers
A pool expecting two blocks a day should find about 14 in a week. It found 11, luck is 79 percent, and social media is already burying the pool. A month later the running number is 101 percent and there is nothing to bury: a short stretch in a lottery means nothing.
Related terms
Where to go next on the site
Numbers
Coins
- Bitcoin coins
Questions and answers
Can you pick a lucky pool
No, luck is a property of randomness, not of the pool. What you pick is the fee, the payout scheme, stability and transparent stats.
Why did my income drop if hashrate is the same
On PPLNS it is most often the pool's unlucky streak or a rise in network difficulty. Check both numbers before hunting for a fault on your side.
Is 130 percent luck over a month here to stay
No, it is just a good streak. The expectation does not change, and the next streak can be the mirror image.
How the terms connect
Every link in the chain is clickable. Orange marks where you are now.
Looking for an ASIC miner
The catalog holds 212 models. You can compare them by hashrate and by joules per terahash, then plug your own rate into the calculator and see what stays in your pocket.
Page written and checked by Denys Klimchuk. Updated .